Monday Intel Brief 10/17/22
Societal collapse
Usually I try to theme these but there’s a lot going on you should pay attention to. For Americans the markets are warning of severe economic slowdowns and there drop is destroying the retirements of millions of Americans. Word War 3 seems to be more and more possible, coinciding with what was once a cold civil war here heating up. Crime will spike to levels we haven’t seen since the 70s and in some cities it’s already surpassed those bad times. Let’s get into it:
It’s 2008 all over again - banks face huge losses on loans:
Banks aren’t the only bad spot, traders see the market as bad in general:
In other words, Wall Street thinks almost all companies listed on the market will lose value as Puts are a way people use to make money on companies going down in price.
Or as Eric Peters of One River Asset Management puts it:
In an industry that has grown to be dominated by passive, long-only products, asset managers simply buy assets when they get inflows and sell assets when they get outflows. They do not have the ability to expand their balance sheets when assets are being sold at distressed prices. No such mechanism exists. “In today’s system, the shock absorber is the asset price.”
“In a system where price is the shock absorber, we should expect very large price moves, and the need for the central bank to step in and support markets becomes more obvious in a crisis,” he said. “But given today’s inflationary backdrop, policy makers cannot be seen to react quickly. They won’t bend early, they simply can’t,” he said.
“I’m growing extremely concerned about the market. Bearish sentiment remains awful. But despite this, the rallies are getting shorter, sharper, whippier. We’re getting close to a broad liquidation point for markets.”
“Most people remain focused on bearish investor positioning,” he said. That measure has been helpful for years; but it was in a disinflationary period with QE in the background, Fed puts, plunge protection teams. “Traders are fearful of missing the turn, the bounce, the Fed pivot. It is all micro focus; they’re chasing their tails. They underestimate the impact of rapidly contracting liquidity; today’s novel flow into reverse repos. They miss things like UK pension margin calls. No one appreciates the risk that the market runs out of oxygen.”
Inflation is already hurting American’s purchasing power:
Some are already saying this is the worst recession since the 1970s:
Retail spending fell when adjusted for inflation:
Retail spending held steady in September compared to August, but fell adjusted to inflation as consumers spent more on essentials, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday.
Despite the fact that consumers spent roughly the same as they did in August, $684 billion, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, these results are not adjusted for inflation, which rose 0.4% on a monthly basis in September, indicating that consumers were getting less value from their spending, according to CNBC. For example, spending at bars and restaurants grew by 0.5% in September, but prices at the same establishments increased by 0.9%, the WSJ reported.
[…]
Consumers spent 8.2% more year-on-year in September, matching the year-on-year inflation reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday. Shoppers generally spent more on necessary products, such as grocery stores and health products, while cutting back on non-essentials, such as sports equipment, books, furniture, and other miscellanious costs, according to the Census Bureau.
“[Consumers] are having to make tough decisions,” said Scott Brave, head of economic analytics for business intelligence firm Morning Consult.
Here’s something interesting - local news segments are appearing that actually round up the most egregious crimes of the week. We haven’t seen news like this since the 1970s.
From Fox 5 in NYC:
From Fox 10 Phoenix:
Some are compilations put on YouTube, some are run on the stations live. It’s a grim reminder that crime is now so out of control it needs recaps.
More Dutch farmer protests are planned as the government there announced forcible confiscation of farms - over climate change:
Dutch farmers’ organisations have vowed to launch more protests in the Netherlands in response to advice from the government’s mediator, who has called for the forceable relocation of farming firms and the seizure of up to 600 farms deemed to be the heaviest nitrogen emitters.
Farmers Defence Force leader Mark Van den Oever announced this week that Dutch farmers will once again take to the streets after the government expressed its intentions to adopt the plan presented by former deputy prime minister Johan Remkes to meet the nitrogen standards demanded by the European Union.
Remkes, who has been serving as the chief mediator between farmers’ organisations and the government in the ongoing dispute over nitrogen emissions, laid out a plan last week that would see farms located close to protected environments forcibly relocated and a scheme for the government to seize up to 600 farms that emit the most nitrogen.
In response to the plan, Van den Oever said that the scheme was “completely wrong” and that the farmers of the nation would “give the old-fashioned gas again, count on that” — in reference to the widespread tractor protests by farmers over the summer.
The Farmers Defence Force leader said that ministers have ignored the concerns of farmers and that the globalist government of Prime Mnister Mark Rutte “imposes far too much on businesses”.
British government still openly deprioritizing child sex crimes:
A now-former British police officer has been spared prison after being convicted for making and possessing indecent images of children, mere weeks after another ex-cop was locked up for sharing George Floyd memes.
Daniel Babbs, formerly of the Forensic Services department of London’s Metropolitan Police, came to the attention of the authorities after “allegedly uploading an indecent image on a social media platform”, according to an official police statement.
[…]
The paedophile’s light treatment comes despite the fact another former police officer was imprisoned for sharing offensive memes about George Floyd in a private WhatsApp group mere weeks ago.
I mention this because we have at least one reader in Britain and wanted to start thinking of ways people in Orwell’s England can protect themselves and their kids. Any ideas are welcome.
The Daily Mirror claims the Iranian special forces are training Russian troops to use specialized drones in Ukraine and are actually on the ground there:
Elite Iranian troops have secretly entered the Ukraine frontline to help Russia’s horror blitz, The Daily Mirror can reveal.
Up to 50 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps specialists have been deployed to train Moscow’s forces in how to operate “Kamikaze drones.”
They were sent to the southern and eastern front with hundreds of Shahed-136 drones which have been hammering Ukrainian cities.
And in some attacks they are suspected of having controlled the flight path and targeting by the Shahed-136 drone teams.
It comes amid growing concerns in the Kremlin that President Vladimir Putin’s brutal war machine is failing and running out of missiles.
Ukrainian artillery and drone teams have recently destroyed one Shahed-136 base in southern Ukraine, according to Kyiv sources.
Putin’s senior commanders signed up the IRGC troops despite repeated denials from the Iranian regime that they are involved.
They have been based in Dzankoi in Crimea and Kherson in the south, where one IRGC team has already been destroyed.
One Ukrainian military source told the Daily Mirror: “At least one of the Iranian training teams has been hit recently and they are actively being hunted down.
Perhaps related China has ordered all Chinese citizens to evacuate Ukraine immediately:
China's foreign ministry on Saturday issued an urgent call for any Chinese nationals still in Ukraine to exit immediately, kicking off speculation over what's behind the unspecified appeal and scramble.
The notification is being widely seen as the most forceful evacuation order yet, and suggests that Beijing might be aware of Russian plans for possibly imminent bigger, sweeping airstrikes against Ukrainian cities, such as the widespread escalatory strikes conducted last Monday into Tuesday.
[…]
he foreign ministry and embassy warned of the "grave security situation" and ordered an immediate departure, citing the need "to enhance safety precautions and evacuate." The statement indicated that "the embassy will assist in organizing the evacuation of people in need." Russian state sources also on Sunday began publicizing the new alert notification.
Is this escalation? Maybe:
Kim.com has a interesting analysis of the world situation:
Or maybe the Ice Agers were right all along: